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CAPM In Practice: Is It Realistic For Investors?

Nov 13, 2025 by compararfundos.com.br 49 views

CAPM in Practice: Is it Realistic for Investors?\n\n## Introduction\nHey guys, ever heard of the _Capital Asset Pricing Model_? Or *CAPM*, for short? If you're into investing or finance, chances are you've bumped into it. It's one of those foundational theories that finance professors *love* to teach, and for good reason. CAPM aims to figure out the _expected return_ for an asset, given its risk. Sounds super useful, right? I mean, who wouldn't want a formula that tells them what kind of return they should expect for taking on a certain level of risk? The core idea is that investors should be compensated for two things: the time value of money (that's your risk-free rate, like what you'd get from a super safe government bond) and *systematic risk*, which is the risk you can't diversify away. This systematic risk is measured by something called _beta_. A higher beta means more sensitivity to overall market movements, and thus, a higher expected return, according to CAPM. It's a cornerstone for things like portfolio management, capital budgeting, and even valuing companies.\n\nHowever, here's where things get interesting, and a little controversial. While *CAPM* is undeniably powerful as a theoretical framework, there's a huge ongoing debate about its _realism_ in the chaotic, unpredictable world of actual investing. Can we truly apply this elegant model to make concrete investment decisions day in and day out? Or is it more of a conceptual tool, a stepping stone to understanding risk and return, rather than a perfect crystal ball? Many finance pros and academics will tell you straight up: the real world is messy, and *CAPM*'s pristine assumptions often get shattered faster than a cheap vase. Think about it: are investors _really_ perfectly rational? Do they _actually_ have access to all the same information? Are there _truly_ no transaction costs or taxes in your investment journey? Spoiler alert: not so much!\n\nThis article is all about diving deep into that question. We're going to explore what _CAPM_ is, understand its underlying assumptions, and then ruthlessly pick apart where it shines and where it absolutely falls short when applied to real-life investing. We'll look at why it's a fantastic educational tool but might need some serious modifications, or even alternatives, when you're putting your hard-earned cash on the line. So, buckle up, because we're about to explore the practicality of *CAPM* for modern investors and see if this classic model still holds its weight in today's fast-paced financial markets. We'll discuss its enduring legacy but also confront its numerous detractors, aiming to give you a balanced, human perspective on whether *CAPM* is a friend or foe in your investment strategy.\n\n## What Exactly is CAPM, Anyway? A Quick Refresher\nAlright, so before we start tearing into its practicalities, let's get everyone on the same page about what *CAPM* actually *is*. At its heart, the _Capital Asset Pricing Model_ (CAPM) is a mathematical formula designed to calculate the expected return of an investment, given its risk. The formula looks a bit intimidating at first glance, but trust me, it's pretty straightforward once you break it down. It goes like this: Expected Return = Risk-Free Rate + Beta * (Market Return - Risk-Free Rate). Let's unpack each component, because understanding these bits is key to grasping both the power and the limitations of the model.\n\nFirst up, the _Risk-Free Rate_ (often denoted as Rf). This is the theoretical return an investor expects from an investment with absolutely zero risk. Think of it like the return you'd get from a U.S. Treasury bill or a highly-rated government bond. It's the baseline, the compensation you get just for delaying consumption, without taking on any market risk. In the real world, finding a *truly* risk-free asset is tricky, but we often use short-term government debt as a proxy. This component is crucial because it sets the minimum bar for any investment; if an asset doesn't offer at least the risk-free rate, why bother taking any risk at all? This forms the foundational layer of expected return, providing a benchmark that even the safest investments must meet.\n\nNext, we have _Beta_ (β). This is arguably the most critical and most debated component of *CAPM*. Beta measures the *systematic risk* of an asset, which is the risk that cannot be diversified away. It tells you how sensitive an asset's return is to changes in the overall market. If an asset has a beta of 1.0, it's expected to move in tandem with the market. If it has a beta of 1.5, it's theoretically 50% more volatile than the market, meaning if the market goes up 10%, this asset should go up 15%, and vice-versa. A beta of 0.5 means it's half as volatile. And if beta is less than zero (which is rare but possible, like for gold in some contexts), it suggests the asset moves inversely to the market. Beta is calculated by regressing the asset's historical returns against the market's historical returns. It's essentially a measure of *non-diversifiable risk*, the stuff you can't avoid just by owning a bunch of different stocks. Understanding beta is central to *CAPM*'s premise: the only risk investors should be compensated for is systematic risk.\n\nFinally, we have the _Market Risk Premium_ (MRP). This is the difference between the expected return of the overall market (Rm) and the risk-free rate (Rf). In simple terms, it's the *additional* return investors expect for investing in the broad market (like the S&P 500) instead of a risk-free asset. It represents the reward for taking on the average level of systematic risk in the market. If the market is expected to return 10% and the risk-free rate is 3%, the market risk premium is 7%. This premium is multiplied by beta to determine the extra return required for a specific asset's systematic risk. So, if your asset has a higher beta, it's more sensitive to market movements, and *CAPM* suggests you should demand a larger slice of that market risk premium. This neatly ties together the concept that higher risk (as measured by beta) should be rewarded with higher expected returns.\n\n## The *Ideal* World of CAPM: Assumptions We Need to Talk About\nAlright, guys, here’s where the rubber meets the road, or rather, where the theory meets reality. For *CAPM* to work perfectly as described, it relies on a set of rather stringent, almost utopian, assumptions about the market and investor behavior. When you're sitting in a finance class, these assumptions make the model clean and elegant. But step outside the classroom, and you'll quickly see why many argue that the _Capital Asset Pricing Model_ is more of a theoretical benchmark than a practical daily tool. Understanding these assumptions is absolutely crucial because it highlights *precisely* where the model begins to diverge from the real world. Let’s break down these foundational pillars of _CAPM_.\n\nFirst off, *rational and risk-averse investors*. *CAPM* assumes that all investors are completely rational, always making logical decisions aimed at maximizing their expected returns for a given level of risk, or minimizing risk for a given return. They're never swayed by emotions like fear or greed. Moreover, they are _risk-averse_, meaning they prefer lower risk for the same return, or higher return for the same risk. This is a pretty big ask, right? Think about the last time you saw a market panic or a speculative bubble. Did rationality really prevail across the board? _Behavioral finance_ has shown us time and again that human psychology plays a massive role in investment decisions, often leading to irrational choices like herd mentality, anchoring, or overconfidence. This fundamental assumption of perfect rationality often falls flat when confronted with actual human beings and their messy emotions.\n\nThen there's the assumption of *homogeneous expectations*. This means that all investors have access to the same information and interpret it in exactly the same way. They all agree on the expected returns, volatilities, and correlations of all assets. In other words, everyone sees the world through the same financial lens. Just pause for a second and think about that. If everyone had the same expectations, would there even be a market? The very act of trading implies differing opinions on the future value of an asset. One person thinks a stock will go up, another thinks it will go down. This diversity of opinion is what drives liquidity and price discovery. If we all agreed, there'd be no buyers for every seller and vice versa. So, this assumption, while simplifying the math, completely sidesteps the dynamic, opinion-driven nature of financial markets.\n\nAnother huge one: *no taxes or transaction costs*. Imagine a world where buying and selling stocks, bonds, or anything else comes with absolutely no fees, no commissions, and no capital gains taxes. Sounds like a dream, right? In the _CAPM_ world, this is the reality. Investors can trade as much as they want, rebalance their portfolios constantly, without any friction or cost eating into their returns. In our actual world, every trade incurs a cost, from broker commissions to bid-ask spreads. And don’t even get me started on taxes, which can significantly alter your net returns, especially if you're a frequent trader. These real-world costs directly contradict the efficiency and cost-free rebalancing assumed by *CAPM*, making it less practical for investors who need to account for these real drains on their capital.\n\nWe also have the idea of *perfect capital markets* and *unlimited borrowing/lending at the risk-free rate*. This implies that investors can borrow or lend any amount of money at the same risk-free rate. If you want to leverage your investments, you can do so infinitely at a magical low rate. If you have excess cash, you can lend it out at that same rate. This is clearly not how banks or lending institutions operate. Borrowing rates are always higher than lending rates, and access to capital isn't limitless for most individuals, nor is it at the risk-free rate. Furthermore, the market is assumed to be *frictionless*, with assets being infinitely divisible and information instantaneously and freely available to all. These ideal conditions simplify the model greatly, allowing for a neat mathematical solution, but they paint a picture far removed from the complex, frictional, and information-asymmetric markets we actually navigate. These core _CAPM_ assumptions are the foundation of its theoretical purity, but they are also the primary targets of critics arguing for its lack of realism.\n\n## Bumps in the Road: Why CAPM Struggles in the Real World\nOkay, guys, now that we’ve gone over the *CAPM*'s idealistic assumptions, it's time to get down to brass tacks: why does the _Capital Asset Pricing Model_ often hit major roadblocks when we try to apply it in the unpredictable, sometimes chaotic, landscape of actual financial markets? The truth is, almost every single assumption we just talked about gets violated in real life, leading to significant discrepancies between what *CAPM* predicts and what we actually observe. This isn't to say _CAPM_ is useless, but rather that its strict framework often crumbles under the weight of market realities. Let's delve into these critical real-world challenges.\n\nFirst up, the *problem with perfect information and rationality* is arguably the biggest elephant in the room. As we discussed, *CAPM* assumes investors are logical, emotionless, and possess identical, complete information. But let’s be real: humans are anything but perfectly rational. We're prone to cognitive biases like confirmation bias, loss aversion, and herd mentality. How many times have you seen people pile into a "hot" stock only to see it crash? Or panic sell during a market downturn, only to miss the subsequent recovery? These behaviors are driven by emotion and psychology, not pure logic. Moreover, information isn't always symmetrical. Insiders might have an edge, and retail investors often get information later than institutional players. This lack of perfect, shared information and the prevalence of irrational behavior directly undermine *CAPM*'s foundational premise, making its predictions less reliable because the input for the "expected return" is not derived from purely rational, unbiased processing. This means that factors beyond systematic risk, like investor sentiment or informational advantages, can significantly drive asset prices, something *CAPM* completely ignores.\n\nThen there's the issue of *transaction costs and taxes: not so free anymore*. The dream of frictionless trading where you can rebalance your portfolio without incurring any cost is just that – a dream. Every time you buy or sell a stock, there's a brokerage commission, even if it's "zero-commission" (you're still paying through bid-ask spreads). If you're managing a large portfolio and need to frequently adjust your holdings to align with *CAPM*'s optimal portfolio, these costs can accumulate and significantly erode your net returns. Furthermore, taxes are a massive factor. Capital gains taxes, income taxes on dividends, and even estate taxes can drastically change the attractiveness of an investment, depending on an investor's tax bracket and investment horizon. *CAPM* completely disregards these real-world financial friction points, making its theoretical expected returns an overestimation of the _actual_ returns an investor will pocket after accounting for these mandatory deductions. For active traders or funds with high turnover, this oversight is particularly problematic, as it leads to an inaccurate assessment of true profitability.\n\nAnother huge practical challenge is *measuring Beta: a moving target?* While beta is central to *CAPM*, its calculation is far from perfect. Beta is typically derived from historical data, usually by regressing an asset's past returns against the market's past returns over a certain period (e.g., 5 years of monthly data). But here's the kicker: *past performance is not indicative of future results*. A company's beta can change dramatically over time due to shifts in its business model, industry dynamics, leverage, or even macroeconomic conditions. A tech startup's beta might be sky-high, but as it matures and becomes more stable, its sensitivity to market movements could decrease. Using a historical beta as a static predictor of future systematic risk can be misleading and lead to inaccurate expected return calculations. There's also the choice of the market proxy – what *is* the "market"? Is it the S&P 500, a global index, or something else? Different choices can yield different beta values, adding another layer of imprecision. This inherent instability and subjectivity in beta estimation significantly weakens *CAPM*'s predictive power in a dynamic market.\n\nMoreover, *the market portfolio: an unattainable dream?* *CAPM* theoretically suggests that the relevant market risk is determined by an investor's position in the "market portfolio," which includes *all* risky assets in the world, weighted by their market value. We're talking about every stock, every bond, every piece of real estate, every commodity, every private equity investment, globally! Such a portfolio is purely theoretical and impossible to perfectly replicate or even observe in its entirety. In practice, investors use broad market indices like the S&P 500 or the MSCI World Index as a proxy. However, these proxies are just *subsets* of the true global market portfolio and may not fully capture all systematic risks or represent the true opportunity set. This divergence between the theoretical "market portfolio" and its practical approximations means that the market risk premium and beta calculations might not be fully reflective of the underlying theory, leading to a weaker empirical validation of *CAPM*.\n\nFinally, and perhaps most importantly, *other factors at play: beyond just beta*. While *CAPM* posits that systematic risk (beta) is the *only* factor for which investors are compensated, empirical research has repeatedly shown that other factors consistently explain differences in expected returns. For instance, the _Fama-French Three-Factor Model_ introduced size (small-cap vs. large-cap) and value (high book-to-market ratio vs. low book-to-market ratio) as additional factors. Later, momentum and profitability factors were also identified. These "anomalies" suggest that assets with certain characteristics (e.g., small companies, value stocks) tend to outperform what *CAPM* would predict, even after accounting for their beta. This evidence directly challenges *CAPM*'s core claim that beta is the sole determinant of expected returns, indicating that the model is incomplete and overlooks other significant drivers of asset pricing. The existence of these persistent factor premiums demonstrates that the real world is far more nuanced than *CAPM*'s singular risk measure allows.\n\n## So, Is CAPM Totally Useless? Not So Fast!\nAlright, after dissecting all those formidable real-world challenges, you might be thinking, "Geez, guys, is the _Capital Asset Pricing Model_ just a relic, a dusty old theory that belongs in a textbook and nowhere else?" And my answer would be a resounding *absolutely not*! While it's crucial to acknowledge its limitations and the situations where its assumptions break down, dismissing *CAPM* entirely would be throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Despite its flaws, the model remains incredibly valuable, serving multiple critical roles in finance, both as an educational tool and as a practical, albeit imperfect, starting point for decision-making. Let's explore why *CAPM* still holds a significant place in the world of investments.\n\nFirst and foremost, *CAPM* is an _outstanding educational framework_. It provides a simple, intuitive way for students and new investors to grasp the fundamental relationship between risk and return. It beautifully illustrates the concept that not all risk is created equal. It teaches us about _diversifiable risk_ (also known as idiosyncratic or unsystematic risk), which you can mitigate by holding a well-diversified portfolio, and _non-diversifiable risk_ (systematic risk, measured by beta), which you cannot escape no matter how many different stocks you own. This distinction is profoundly important. _CAPM_ forces us to think about why some assets command higher expected returns than others, framing it in terms of market sensitivity. It provides a foundational vocabulary and conceptual model for understanding asset pricing that is still taught universally because it distills complex ideas into an understandable formula. Without *CAPM*, learning more advanced multi-factor models would be much harder, as it sets the baseline for understanding what these more complex models are trying to improve upon. So, while it might not be a perfect predictive tool, its didactic value is unparalleled in finance education.\n\nBeyond the classroom, *CAPM* often serves as a practical _starting point for estimating the cost of equity_ for companies. When a company needs to raise capital, it needs to figure out its "cost of capital," which includes the cost of debt and the cost of equity. The cost of equity is essentially the return that shareholders expect for investing in that company. While sophisticated firms might use more complex multi-factor models, many businesses, especially smaller ones or those without the resources for advanced financial modeling, still rely on *CAPM* as a straightforward, widely understood method to get a reasonable estimate. For instance, an analyst might use the company’s beta, the current risk-free rate, and a market risk premium (often derived from historical market data or surveys) to calculate a discount rate for valuing future cash flows. It provides a standardized framework that allows for a level of comparability across different companies, even if the absolute accuracy isn't perfect. It's a pragmatic shortcut that, while not flawless, provides an actionable figure when more complex methods are impractical or unnecessary for a quick valuation.\n\nFurthermore, *CAPM* offers a valuable _benchmark for evaluating portfolio performance_. Even if you don't use *CAPM* to select individual stocks, you can use its principles to assess how well your portfolio manager or your own investment strategy is performing relative to the risk you're taking. By comparing your portfolio's actual returns to the returns predicted by *CAPM* for a portfolio with a similar beta, you can calculate the _Jensen's Alpha_. A positive alpha suggests that your portfolio has generated returns *above* what would be expected for its level of systematic risk, potentially indicating skillful management or superior asset selection. Conversely, a negative alpha suggests underperformance. This benchmarking capability allows investors to distinguish between returns that are simply due to taking on more market risk and returns that are generated by active management skill. It’s a tool for accountability, providing a metric to judge whether you’re getting compensated appropriately for the market exposure you’re undertaking.\n\nLastly, and this is a subtle but important point, *CAPM* provides a _conceptual foundation for recognizing systemic risk_. It was groundbreaking in highlighting that only systematic risk, the kind that affects all assets to some degree, is rewarded in efficient markets. This insight fundamentally changed how investors think about diversification. It made clear that simply adding more assets to a portfolio won't eliminate all risk; rather, it will only eliminate the diversifiable risk. The remaining systematic risk is what you must bear and for which you should demand compensation. This understanding is critical for asset allocation decisions and understanding market dynamics. Even if its specific calculation of expected return is debated, its core message about the nature of risk and reward in well-functioning markets remains profoundly relevant and continues to influence modern portfolio theory. So, no, _CAPM_ isn't useless; it's a powerful framework that, when used with an understanding of its limitations, provides significant value.\n\n## Beyond CAPM: Modern Alternatives and Enhancements\nSo, we've had a pretty frank discussion about where *CAPM* shines and where its pristine, theoretical framework bumps into the gritty reality of financial markets. The good news, guys, is that the world of finance didn't just stop evolving once *CAPM* was formulated. Academics and practitioners, recognizing the model's empirical shortcomings – especially its inability to fully explain observed returns and the existence of "anomalies" like the size and value effects – have developed more sophisticated models and approaches. These alternatives and enhancements aim to capture additional dimensions of risk and return that *CAPM*'s single-factor beta simply couldn't. Understanding these goes a long way in appreciating the continuous effort to build more realistic and robust asset pricing models.\n\nOne of the most prominent and widely accepted successors to *CAPM* is the _Fama-French Multi-Factor Model_. Initially introduced as the _Fama-French Three-Factor Model_ by Eugene Fama and Kenneth French in the early 1990s, this model expanded on *CAPM* by adding two additional factors beyond the market risk premium (Rm-Rf). These new factors are: _SMB (Small Minus Big)_ and _HML (High Minus Low)_. The SMB factor accounts for the observed tendency for small-cap stocks to outperform large-cap stocks over the long term (the "size effect"). The HML factor captures the tendency for "value stocks" (those with high book-to-market ratios, often indicating financial distress or undervaluation) to outperform "growth stocks" (low book-to-market ratios, often high-flying tech companies) (the "value effect"). The idea here is that these size and value premiums represent additional forms of systematic risk for which investors demand compensation, something *CAPM* entirely missed. Later, Fama and French expanded this to a _Five-Factor Model_ by adding profitability (RMW: Robust Minus Weak) and investment (CMA: Conservative Minus Aggressive) factors, further refining the explanation of asset returns. These models significantly improved the empirical fit over *CAPM* and are widely used in academic research and by institutional investors to explain and predict returns.\n\nAnother significant theoretical advancement is the _Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT)_, developed by Stephen Ross. Unlike *CAPM*, which relies on a single market factor (beta) and a strict set of assumptions, _APT_ is a multi-factor model that doesn't specify *which* macroeconomic factors should drive returns. Instead, it suggests that an asset's expected return can be modeled as a linear function of various macroeconomic risk factors, provided that these factors are pervasive (affect many assets) and not diversifiable. Examples of such factors could include unexpected changes in inflation, industrial production, interest rates, or consumer sentiment. The beauty of _APT_ is its flexibility; it allows different factors to be relevant in different markets or for different asset classes. It also has fewer restrictive assumptions than *CAPM*, making it theoretically more appealing in some regards. However, a drawback is that _APT_ doesn't tell you *what* the factors are; they must be identified empirically, which can be a challenging task. Despite this, it provides a robust framework for thinking about multiple sources of systematic risk beyond just market exposure.\n\nBeyond specific multi-factor models, the broader concept of _factor investing_ has gained immense popularity, essentially building on the insights derived from models like Fama-French. Factor investing involves deliberately structuring portfolios to get exposure to specific return-enhancing "factors" or characteristics that have historically delivered premiums. Common factors include value, size, momentum, quality, and low volatility. While these are often seen as "anomalies" through a *CAPM* lens, they are understood in modern finance as distinct risk premia or behavioral biases that can be systematically captured. Investment products like smart beta ETFs are designed to target these factors, allowing investors to move beyond simple market-cap weighting and potentially enhance returns or reduce risk. This evolution shows a clear shift from *CAPM*'s simplistic view to a more nuanced understanding of the diverse drivers of asset returns.\n\nIn essence, while *CAPM* laid crucial groundwork, the subsequent development of multi-factor models like Fama-French and theoretical frameworks like _APT_, along with the rise of factor investing, demonstrates a continuous effort to create models that are more empirically robust and better reflect the complexities of real-world asset pricing. These models acknowledge that investors are compensated for more than just market risk, providing a more comprehensive toolkit for understanding and managing investments in modern financial markets. They are not necessarily replacing *CAPM* entirely but rather building upon its foundational insights to offer a more nuanced and accurate picture of risk and return.\n\n## Conclusion: Finding Balance in the Investment Jungle\nAlright, guys, we’ve covered a lot of ground today, from the pristine theoretical elegance of the _Capital Asset Pricing Model_ to its very real struggles in the messy world of actual investing. So, what’s the final verdict? Is *CAPM* realistic for modern investors? The most honest and practical answer is: _it depends_. It's neither a magical crystal ball nor a completely obsolete relic. Instead, it’s a powerful, foundational concept that serves a crucial role, provided you understand its inherent limitations and use it with a healthy dose of skepticism and alongside other, more refined tools. Think of *CAPM* as a sturdy old map; it gives you the basic lay of the land, shows you the major landmarks, and points you in the right direction, but you wouldn't rely on it exclusively for navigating the intricate, ever-changing alleys and hidden pathways of a bustling metropolis. You'd need a modern GPS with real-time traffic updates and detailed street views to truly get around efficiently.\n\nOn one hand, the _CAPM_'s contribution to finance education and its conceptual clarity are undeniable. It profoundly changed how we think about risk and return, introducing the vital distinction between diversifiable and systematic risk. It provided a simple, intuitive framework that established the principle that investors should only be compensated for bearing systematic risk. This insight remains a cornerstone of modern portfolio theory, influencing how we construct diversified portfolios and evaluate investment performance. For students and beginners, *CAPM* offers an accessible entry point into understanding complex financial concepts, laying the groundwork for more advanced studies. Furthermore, as a quick-and-dirty tool for estimating the cost of equity or as a benchmark for performance evaluation (think Jensen's Alpha), it still finds practical application in many settings, especially where simplicity and broad acceptance are valued over pinpoint accuracy. It provides a common language for discussing risk-adjusted returns, which is incredibly valuable in itself.\n\nHowever, we absolutely cannot ignore the significant challenges and empirical evidence that highlight *CAPM*'s shortcomings. Its reliance on highly restrictive, unrealistic assumptions about rational investors, frictionless markets, and homogeneous expectations is a major stumbling block. The difficulty in accurately measuring beta, the impossibility of observing the true market portfolio, and the consistent observation of "anomalies" that *CAPM* cannot explain (like the size and value premiums identified by Fama-French) all point to the model's incompleteness. Modern financial markets are complex, driven by behavioral factors, informational asymmetries, and a multitude of systematic risk factors beyond just market beta. To exclusively rely on *CAPM* for making real-world investment decisions would be to ignore decades of empirical research and the nuanced realities of asset pricing. It's like trying to fight a modern war with only a single musket; while it might have been revolutionary once, you'll be quickly outmatched by those with more advanced weaponry.\n\nSo, for you, the modern investor, how should you approach *CAPM*? View it as a foundational piece of knowledge, a conceptual guide, but not as the definitive word on expected returns. Use its core principle – that higher systematic risk demands higher expected return – to guide your general thinking. But when it comes to actual portfolio construction, security selection, and performance attribution, be prepared to look beyond it. Embrace the insights from multi-factor models like the Fama-French series, consider the principles of _Arbitrage Pricing Theory_, and understand the role of various market factors that empirically drive returns. Leverage the insights from behavioral finance to guard against your own psychological biases. In the end, a balanced approach involves appreciating *CAPM*'s historical significance and conceptual strength while acknowledging its practical limitations and supplementing it with more empirically robust and comprehensive models. The investment jungle is indeed complex, but with the right blend of foundational understanding and modern tools, you'll be much better equipped to navigate it successfully.

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